Quick Take
Recent data analysis paints a precarious picture for the European economy. Q3 2023 GDP figures illustrate a contraction of -0.1%, defying the forecast for a flat rate. This downturn marks a crucial moment for the European economy, as another subsequent negative quarter could officially wedge Europe into a recessionary period.
This economic backdrop is further nuanced by the inflation figures. The headline inflation rate for Europe was lower than the projected 3.1%, registering at 2.9% year over year. Despite this dip, core inflation remained steady at 4.2% year over year, matching consensus expectations. Despite declining headline inflation, the core inflation rate remained at 4.2% yearly. However, it’s worth noting that this figure is double the typical inflation target set by central banks.
These data, taken together, suggest a series of financial challenges facing the European economy. GDP contraction coupled with a dip in headline inflation, yet steady core inflation, could potentially signal an economic imbalance that needs addressing.
The impending question is whether Europe can stave off another negative quarter and effectively skirt a recession. The interplay between GDP and inflation figures will undoubtedly be a key watchpoint in the ensuing quarters.
| EU GDP and Inflation data | Actual | Previous | Consensus |
|---|---|---|---|
| GDP Growth Rate QoQ Flash Q3 | -0.1% | 0.1% | 0% |
| GDP Growth Rate YoY Flash Q3 | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.2% |
| Inflation Rate YoY Flash, October | 2.9% | 4.3% | 3.1% |
| Core Inflation Rate YoY Flash, October | 4.2% | 4.5% | 4.2% |
| Inflation Rate MoM Flash, October | 0.1% | 0.3% | – |
| CPI Flash, October | 124.55 | 124.4 | – |
EU GDP and inflation data: (Source: Trading Economics)
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